Is the housing recovery over?

In spite of happy news regarding US housing, I have been pretty negative about the sector’s overall prospects and it now seems the markets are corroborating this view. The chart above shows three series directly related to the US housing market; XHB, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders Index, $DJSHMB, the Dow Jones US Select Home [...]

Another housing bubble?

I’ve written before about the recent surge of house prices in The United States – much of which is being driven by hedge funds and private equity groups acquiring property at knock down prices to rent. The chart above shows two series: first, the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index (SPCS20RSA, black line) compared [...]

Derailing the housing recovery

The media is pushing lots of happy news about a so-called “housing recovery”, claims to which I’ve previously expressed my scepticism. Specifically, we know much of the recent activity in housing is being driven not by the traditional purchasers of homes, but by hedge funds and private equity vehicles who are acquiring large portfolios [...]

US Housing not so fast

As usual, the US media is pushing lots of happy news about the housing market, specifically that the Case-Shiller Home Price index has surged over the past year. But lets look deeper.

The chart above shows the Delinquency Rate On Single-Family Residential Mortgages (DRSFRMACBS, in percent, measured quarterly, data from all commercial banks) [...]

Still believe in the housing “recovery”?

Lots of happy news lately in the US media about the housing recovery but I’m not convinced for two reasons.

First, both lumber and copper are used to build houses. The average home contains about 400 pounds of copper and 30,000 square feet of lumber and wood products. So curious question, if there [...]

The Real Estate Industrial Complex

Real estate is an important driver of the American economy, accounting for perhaps as much as 17% of GDP and one in nine jobs, by some accounts. Of course that was a pre-recession metric so how large a contributor is real estate now?

A little difficult to measure directly, but lets look at [...]

US Housing – Seeking Alpha article

Seeking Alpha picked up one of my articles, if you’re looking for exposure to the home building sector, there are two companies you might want to look at.

Revenue is growing, margins are growing and these two companies dominate their market.

Housing: primed to disappoint

Recent good news about the housing market needs to be considered critically, and especially from a broader perspective. The chart above shows two series: first the widely reported S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index (SPCS20RNSA, black line) and the second the much less widely reported Delinquency Rate On Single-Family Residential Mortgages (DRSFRMACBS, blue line) [...]

Housing’s grind

The latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices were on the surface encouraging, showing “average home prices increased by 1.5% for the 10-City Composite and by 1.6% for the 20-City Composite in July versus June 2012″ but let’s put this into context.

Consulting the chart above we can see that first, the indices topped out [...]

Where is the inflation?

I’ve written before about what I view as the big elephant in the room today, inflation, but where is our unwelcome guest? Is it likely he’s slowly approaching and going to make a grand entrance in our lives? I kinda think so, and here is why. The chart above shows weekly prices for three [...]