Employment has flat lined

Lots of attention is focused on the unemployment rate, with minor reductions pointed to as evidence that things are “getting better”. I thought it would be interesting to look not at unemployment but rather at employment. The chart above shows three series – Civilian Employment (CE16OV, blue line), Workers Not in Labor Force (LNS15000000, [...]

A horrible jobs number

came out this AM, even though we saw unemployment dip to 7.6% what the happy news reports (rather conveniently) omit is the simple fact that at the same time the participation rate dropped from 63.5% to 63.3% of the population. In other words, this month another 0.2% of the workforce decided labor isn’t for [...]

Low interest rates forever?

As the US economy struggles to receiver from the Credit Crunch and resultant Great Recession, America’s central bank, The Federal Reserve, has famously stated they’ll keep interest rates low until unemployment hits 6.5%. How long will that take?

The chart above shows US unemployment (UNRATE, black line, measured monthly in percentage terms) for [...]

Poor wage growth, poor recovery

The chart above shows Total Private Job Openings (JTS1000JOL, black line, measured monthly in thousands and seasonally adjusted) compared to Total Private Average Hourly Earnings (AHETPI, % change from one year ago, measured monthly and seasonally adjusted). I’m comparing The Great Recession which ended in June 2009 to the Early 2000s Recession, which ended [...]

Forget Unemployment

The problem with metrics such as unemployment is they precisely measure what they’re intended to measure. Unemployment is particularly troublesome, as folks are only counted as unemployed if they are actively looking for work. So lets take a different view of the “who is working and who is not working question”. The chart above [...]

Spooked consumers are saving …

The growth in job creation has all but flatlined, while the expanding labour force has pushed unemployment rate up and fully 80% of Americans have directly experienced unemployment or known someone who has been unemployed during The Great Recession, and the canaries in the coal mind are sending signals we’d best not ignore.


Approach a stall

As the year draws to a close, with everything that’s going on – The US Fiscal Cliff, The Fed’s announcement of Quantitative Easing 4 and renewed fears of a recession in The United States – I thought I’d take a look at the economy. There are four charts in this presentation, each covering the period [...]

The stagnant job market

Anyone reading this blog knows that I’m an avid follower of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Opening and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data. BLS’ most recent update was released this morning, and proves very interesting reading, but first lets look at this graphically.

The chart above shows two series: first [...]

Who is working?

Of course unemployment fell, the chart above shows the labour force participation rate (CIVPART, black line) from January 1st 1980 to November 1st 2012, measured monthly in percent. In terms of folks working only 63.6% of the labour force participate in the grand experiment known as “employment”. This is the lowest number since September [...]

Slow jobs growth in 2012

The chart above shows ADP Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (NPPTTL, black line) for the period January 2002 to November 2012, specifically the year on year percent change in growth. In 2012 we have seen a sharp slowdown in jobs creation from January to November, with manufacturing showing a net loss in employment. While [...]