Will consumer debt kill the recovery?

The chart above shows two series: first the amount of consumer loans outstanding at commercial banks (CCLACBM027SBOG, black line) compared to the personals savings rate (GPSAVE_PC1, blue line), while the grey vertical bar illustrates The Great Recession; some observations are apparent.

First, consumer loans apparently surged immediately after the Great Recession, jumping 65% [...]

Spooked consumers are saving …

The growth in job creation has all but flatlined, while the expanding labour force has pushed unemployment rate up and fully 80% of Americans have directly experienced unemployment or known someone who has been unemployed during The Great Recession, and the canaries in the coal mind are sending signals we’d best not ignore.

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Savings and Personal Income oh my !

Interesting news about recent increases in consumer spending but where is the money coming from? The chart above shows savings (GPSAVE, black line) compared to disposable personal income (DSPI, blue line), sampled monthly and calculated as percentage change from a year ago, over the period 2002 to 2012. The savings rate has clearly collapsed [...]

Is the savings rate really surging?

US Personal Savings Rate, rolling one year average in %, 1960 to 2012

The media seems to be making a lot of noise recently about the US personal savings rate, specifically how recent increases have “taught Americans a lesson” after The Great Recession began in August 2007. I’m not so sure about that. The [...]

As you might have guessed, my name is Dave Coker. I'm an ex-expatriate New Yorker who has lived in London since 1997.

I've worked in Investment Banking since the early 1980's, starting my career in New York with Dow Jones . I next moved to Deutsche Bank, where I spent the bulk of my career as Vice President of Global Risk Management. While at Moody's I was responsible for Professional Services in Europe, The Middle East and Africa, and was responsible globally for resources. While at ABN AMRO I was Global Programme Manager Risk Management Technology. Needless to say, I've seen Investment Banking and financial services from a wide variety of perspectives.

I take a long view towards finance and economics. I believe past events - the study of economic history - can help us understand current market events.

Internationally educated, I'm completing a PhD in Finance (Zurich), currently hold an MSc in Quantitative Finance (London), an MBA (London), studied Mathematics & Computer Science at the Undergraduate level (New York), and, most importantly, I've been a lifelong Student of the Markets.

I currently write and sell market commentary to several banks and hedge funds, consult on Credit Risk to a Global Tier 1 Investment Bank, and teach finance at The University of Westminster in London.

I'm a polished and effective public speaker, sometimes presenting on finance as many as six or eight times a week. I've also made several media appearances over the past two years, once again on the subject of finance.
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Observations of a financial nature.