Watch today’s durable goods

January durable goods orders surprised to the downside, with demand sharply down 5.2%, the first drop since August 2012 (when we saw a fall of 6.6%) and the most in three years. Most of this was attributed to a sharp fall in demand for US aircraft but regardless the knock on effect is clear: [...]

What happened to America investing in America?

The chart above presents gross private domestic investment (GPDIC96, black line, real aka “inflation adjusted” terms, billions of chained 2005 Dollars, measured quarterly with an annual rate reported) for the period 2003 to 2013, or ten years. Over the period in question we’ve seen a sharp fall in investment of some 32%, from the [...]

Where is the money?

Commercial paper is a key driver of business activity in The United States, so important that when the market started seizing up in in the throes of The Credit Crunch a bailout one (one of the few bailouts I agreed with) was engineered in the form of the Commercial Paper Funding Facility. This was [...]

A picture says it all

Sometimes its difficult to appreciate the sheer scope and intensity of The Great Recession and the depth of the hole the US economy has to crawl out of. The chart above shows real Gross Domestic Product (aka, “GDP”, GDPC1, black line) from October 2007 to the present. Further, I’ve baseline the series to 100 [...]

Approach a stall

As the year draws to a close, with everything that’s going on – The US Fiscal Cliff, The Fed’s announcement of Quantitative Easing 4 and renewed fears of a recession in The United States – I thought I’d take a look at the economy. There are four charts in this presentation, each covering the period [...]

Where’s the money?

Lots of happy news in the media recently about a rebound in housing; existing home sales rose 2.1%, construction spending increased 1.4% and developers are acquiring large parcels of relatively remote undeveloped land, in grabs reminiscent of the early 2000s boom times. I’ve previously expressed by scepticism, for reasons ranging from misinterpretation of the [...]

What happened to the recovery?

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve bank calculates both coincident and leading indexes for all states as well as the nation. The coincident index is a measure of the current state of the economy. The leading indicators are of particular interest since they forecast the six month growth rate for coincident index; in other words, give [...]

What price growth?

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is broad measurement of economic activity. Calculated as a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators selected from four broad categories: production and income employment, unemployment, and hours personal consumption and housing sales, orders, and inventories

the metric is designed to have an average value of zero [...]

Unemployment is sticky

The latest US recession, which began in December 2007 and ended in the June 2009 was longest in America since WWII, lasting some 18 months. The chart above shows the Median Weeks Unemployed (series LNU03008276, black line) sampled monthly over the past five years. A few observations: the pre-recession low was observed in December, [...]

Nobody is spending money

And with what appears to be the emergence of global, coordinated recessions it is no wonder. The chart above shows the velocity of money (MZM, black line and simply put, this describes how often money turns over or literally, “is spent”). Evaluating the chart we see the as the economy cooled and tipped into [...]