The US economy is teetering

Friday’s news that US GDP slowed markedly in Q4 2015 to 0.7% from a preliminary estimate of 2% was a surprise to many, but the trend was clear from looking at the data. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) provides an effective measurement of consumption in The United States. In other words, when people buy stuff [...]

What price growth?

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is broad measurement of economic activity. Calculated as a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators selected from four broad categories: production and income employment, unemployment, and hours personal consumption and housing sales, orders, and inventories

the metric is designed to have an average value of zero [...]