Housing: primed to disappoint

Recent good news about the housing market needs to be considered critically, and especially from a broader perspective. The chart above shows two series: first the widely reported S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index (SPCS20RNSA, black line) and the second the much less widely reported Delinquency Rate On Single-Family Residential Mortgages (DRSFRMACBS, blue line) [...]

America, renters nation

This week we saw some conflicting views on the state of the US housing market: JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon claimed that “housing has turned the corner”, an assertion denied by Citigroup and other analysts. Sure, I know that record low mortgage rates and, of course, The Fed’s meddling have trigged a wave of [...]

Housing’s grind

The latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices were on the surface encouraging, showing “average home prices increased by 1.5% for the 10-City Composite and by 1.6% for the 20-City Composite in July versus June 2012″ but let’s put this into context.

Consulting the chart above we can see that first, the indices topped out [...]

Housing, in perspective

Seems like there is finally some good news recently in housing, but in this election year before things gets out of control I wanted to put this in perspective; the chart above shows housing starts (HOUST, black line) over the past ten years with the last recession indicated by the vertical grey column. First [...]