Is the housing recovery over?

In spite of happy news regarding US housing, I have been pretty negative about the sector’s overall prospects and it now seems the markets are corroborating this view. The chart above shows three series directly related to the US housing market; XHB, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders Index, $DJSHMB, the Dow Jones US Select Home [...]

Derailing the housing recovery

The media is pushing lots of happy news about a so-called “housing recovery”, claims to which I’ve previously expressed my scepticism. Specifically, we know much of the recent activity in housing is being driven not by the traditional purchasers of homes, but by hedge funds and private equity vehicles who are acquiring large portfolios [...]

US Housing not so fast

As usual, the US media is pushing lots of happy news about the housing market, specifically that the Case-Shiller Home Price index has surged over the past year. But lets look deeper.

The chart above shows the Delinquency Rate On Single-Family Residential Mortgages (DRSFRMACBS, in percent, measured quarterly, data from all commercial banks) [...]

Still believe in the housing “recovery”?

Lots of happy news lately in the US media about the housing recovery but I’m not convinced for two reasons.

First, both lumber and copper are used to build houses. The average home contains about 400 pounds of copper and 30,000 square feet of lumber and wood products. So curious question, if there [...]

Housing is booming, right?

Wrong. The Fed is buying. But let’s look deeper: the latest news on US housing was promising, with prices gaining some 9.3% YOY in 20 cities. An old expression claims as housing goes so goes the US economy so what’s not to like about this picture?

Unfortunately, much of this growth is being [...]

Bullish on houses, not so fast !

There has been lots of bullish chatter about US house prices, especially so since over the past year we’ve seen the largest increase since 2006.

But some folks – including Robert Shiller himself – are not convinced. Why? There still seems to be lots of downward pressure on housing prices and here is [...]

Where’s the money?

Lots of happy news in the media recently about a rebound in housing; existing home sales rose 2.1%, construction spending increased 1.4% and developers are acquiring large parcels of relatively remote undeveloped land, in grabs reminiscent of the early 2000s boom times. I’ve previously expressed by scepticism, for reasons ranging from misinterpretation of the [...]

Operation Bust?

The latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price index data has been released, and folks do seem to be getting ahead of themselves with the happy news “… it is safe to say that we are now in the midst of a recovery in the housing market … ” . The chart above shows the S&P/Case-Shiller home [...]

Housing again

New home starts surged last month, with many citing a shrinking supply of distressed and foreclosed inventory but I’m not sure this picture is complete The chart above shows two series: first, housing starts (HOUSTNSA, black, thousands of units measured monthly) and the delinquency rate on single family homes (DRSFRMACBS, blue line, measured in [...]

Don’t be fooled by good news on housing

I notice lots of happy news in the US media about housing, most centred arounds reports of a rise in the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index. I’ve already expressed my views on this – you have to look not only at the home price index but also at delinquency rates; how many people [...]

As you might have guessed, my name is Dave Coker. I'm an ex-expatriate New Yorker who has lived in London since 1997.

I've worked in Investment Banking since the early 1980's, starting my career in New York with Dow Jones . I next moved to Deutsche Bank, where I spent the bulk of my career as Vice President of Global Risk Management. While at Moody's I was responsible for Professional Services in Europe, The Middle East and Africa, and was responsible globally for resources. While at ABN AMRO I was Global Programme Manager Risk Management Technology. Needless to say, I've seen Investment Banking and financial services from a wide variety of perspectives.

I take a long view towards finance and economics. I believe past events - the study of economic history - can help us understand current market events.

Internationally educated, I'm completing a PhD in Finance (Zurich), currently hold an MSc in Quantitative Finance (London), an MBA (London), studied Mathematics & Computer Science at the Undergraduate level (New York), and, most importantly, I've been a lifelong Student of the Markets.

I currently write and sell market commentary to several banks and hedge funds, consult on Credit Risk to a Global Tier 1 Investment Bank, and teach finance at The University of Westminster in London.

I'm a polished and effective public speaker, sometimes presenting on finance as many as six or eight times a week. I've also made several media appearances over the past two years, once again on the subject of finance.
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Observations of a financial nature.