Sometimes it pays to look at relative value

Spot gold, WTIC, June 2002 to June 2012, monthly with relative value area curve

A lot of times its difficult to determine what’s called fair value in the markets; in other words, what is a fair and accurate price for an asset. I often prefer look at relative value, or comparing the price of [...]

Possible breakout in gold?

HUI & Spot Gold, year to date, June 1st 2012

The chart above shows the year to date performance of both gold (the area curve) and HUI, or the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS (basket of unhedged gold stocks) Index which is displayed as a black line. HUI consists of the stocks of mining companies [...]

Where will your money be safe?

Comparison of various safe haven assets, YTD, May 24th 2012

As Europe continues to mire about in crisis, China slows, Japan gets downgraded and the Swiss maintain their controversial Euro / Swiss Franc peg a curious thing is happening; money is flowing into America and the US Dollar and only America and the US [...]

The US Dollar: best of the bad alternatives

since February 14th 2012 the US $ has strenghted 3.23%

In February I wrote that 2012 might be the year of the US Dollar, primarily reaching that conclusion because the dollar was the best of a bunch of bad alternatives. Well, since I wrote that column the US Dollar has increased 3.23% as illustrated [...]

Gold stocks, what an opportunity

Spot gold and HUI, Jan 1st 2012 to May 11th 2012, daily

I’ve previously written about the divergence in the price of gold and HUI, the so-called gold bugs index. They should track each other very closely, as the companies comprising HUI mine and sell gold. As the price of gold goes up, [...]

Opportunity in gold stocks?

Spot price of gold and the HUI, daily, March 6th 2009 to May 3rd, 2012

Something curious is happening with gold stocks; the chart above shows the daily price of gold (black line) and an index, HUI, that tracks the performance of a basket of gold mining companies (red line) from the start of [...]

Gold volatility is subsiding how about prices?

Gold, spot price and annual volatility, monthly, 2002 to 2012

Like everyone else I’ve been watching the price of gold but I’ve also been trying to look a little deeper, specifically at the annual volatility of prices for some insight. The chart above shows the spot price of gold (black line, axis on left) [...]

So the gold bull is done?

Q1 gold coin sales, in ounces and the % change from Q1 previous year, 2002 to 2012

Demand for gold is apparently collapsing, leading some folks to speculate that the bull market in gold has ended, as long ago as August 2011. The chart above shows Q1 sales of gold coins for the period [...]

Talking relative value

Dow / Gold ratio with the Dow presented monthly, 1982 to 2012, with trendline

We can learn lots about the markets in general and assets specifically by looking not a prices but at relative value. In other words, we don’t evaluate asset prices absolutely, rather we compare two assets and try identify which [...]

Debt, debt and more debt

The problem with numbers, especially big numbers is after a while we get desensitised. A billion here, ten billion there, hundred billion or so on top, after a while nobody is paying attention because there are so many zeroes! So I thought I’d present US Total Government debt a little differently; the chart above [...]