And so the currency wars …

Last month’s G20 finance ministers meeting in Moscow ended with the proclamation they would “refrain from competitive devaluation”. Well, someone should tell the left hand what the right hand is up to. The chart above details the Yen index ($XJY, black line) and Pound index ($XBP, blue line) compared to the US Dollar index [...]

2012 – Year of the Dollar?

Dollar Index, 1992 to 2012, weekly

The chart above shows the value of the US Dollar when considered against a basket of America’s six most important trading partners. Clearly, as US debt levels have increased the relative value of the Dollar has retreated from highs last seen in 2001 / 2002.

But given [...]

The Swiss Franc and gold

Spot price of gold, reflecting date of Swiss Franc / Euro peg on September 6th 2011

Yesterday’s resignation of the Swiss Central Bank’s Chairman, Philipp M. Hildebrand, has focused attention on the less than four month old Swiss Franc / Euro peg.

The peg, established on September 6th 2011, locks the exchange rate at [...]

So the US won’t call China a currency manipulator?

Twice a year The Treasury Department reports to Congress about the currency policies of America’s trading partners. Treasury has “declined to brand China a manipulator of its exchange rate” but apparently still will continue to push for further appreciation of the Yuan.

The chart above shows the real problem. In Q3 2011 [...]

US Dollar strength based on Euro weakness?

There are two charts presented above. The first shows the 2011 YTD performance of The US Dollar Index against The Euro. The chart below shows the degree of correlation of the two indices, measured on a trailing 20 day basis. I selected 20 days as four weeks are roughly one month of trading.

The [...]

The US $ asks “how do you like me now?”

As we’ve mentioned before, the US $ has been a powerhouse this quarter. Above we see the relative performance of the US $ (up 6.5% since August, 2.9% MOM) vs Global Equities (fell 10.3% since August, 2.9% MOM).

The unnatural strength of the US Dollar …

The Euro trades the lowest its been in 18 months, the Yen drops on rumours of further BOJ interventions even as the technical analysis guys say the US Dollar could strengthen another 20% against the Yen when will it all end?

Perhaps not soon. Best to go along with strong dollar in the [...]

Oh how far the mighty US $ has fallen!

Declines in the US Dollar have intensified over the past week as fear of an Euro breakup recede. Now all attention is focused on the US, and rumours are another ratings agency downgrade is on the way …