The economic news out of Greece is dreadful, with another quarter of collapse documented that calls into question future bailouts. Frustrated by what is perceived as Greek obstinance, Merkel has threatened to cut off the next tranche of funding leading to renewed fears of a currency collapse. As the chart above shows, the Euro [...]
Lots of folks are aware The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) is a bailout mechanism, intended to be funded by the 17 members of the Eurozone. The ESM is being touted as the means to rescue Spain and other heavily indebted European nations. The ESM will initially be funded at 500 B Euro, and from [...]
Comparison of various safe haven assets, YTD, May 24th 2012
As Europe continues to mire about in crisis, China slows, Japan gets downgraded and the Swiss maintain their controversial Euro / Swiss Franc peg a curious thing is happening; money is flowing into America and the US Dollar and only America and the US [...]
YTD 2012 performance of The DAX compared to The S&P 500
I’ve posted about my unease with the recent US equity market advances, so this raises an obvious question – where to invest your money? How about Germany? The chart above shows the 2012 year to date performance of the the DAX compared [...]
Gross government debt to GDP ratio, US and Eurozone, 2010 to 2016
It is commonly held by economists that high levels of government debt results in sluggish economic growth. The reason why is simple: as overall debt increases so does debt service, money that’s diverted from creating or maintaining a productive infrastructure.
VIX and widening divergence between Dow Industrials and Dow Transports
I’ve previously posted about The VIX so won’t go into details here, but we’re starting to see it bounce off lows which is somewhat concerning.
The top chart shows The VIX since 2008, and the index has clearly retreated from it’s 2008 record [...]
Exposure to Greece by non Greek Banks, top five insitutions, both EBA and banks own regulatory filings
I’ve constructed an interesting dataset, looking at European Banking Authority (EBA) data and comparing it to the bank’s own regulatory filings. Curious, there are substantial differences between the view of regulators when compared to the banks themselves. [...]
Dollar Index, 1992 to 2012, weekly
The chart above shows the value of the US Dollar when considered against a basket of America’s six most important trading partners. Clearly, as US debt levels have increased the relative value of the Dollar has retreated from highs last seen in 2001 / 2002.
But given [...]
200 Year History of Greek Defaults – 1948 to 2008
For the all the angst a possible Greek default raises, I feel obliged to point out that sovereign defaults are NOT rare. The chart above, sourced from This time is different chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default and Financial Crises (Reinhart, 2010) shows the [...]