A tale of two Christmas’

The 2016 Christmas run up saw the shares of retailers ( tracked by XRT, first chart ) rise an anaemic 1%, while in 2017 the same stocks BOOMED, soaring some 5.17 during the last two weeks of December. Why?

Well, MasterCard reports record Christmas spending of some $800B this year. In fact, this was [...]

How do you pronounce Trump trade?

I’ve presented two charts below, first The US Dollar Index. I tend to watch this index as its a broad measure of The US Dollar’s exchange rate against a basket of six of America’s most important trading partners i.e., EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHK & SEK. Its better to look at a broad measure than [...]

Poverty in The United States

The Administration recently suggested that ‘ “Anybody who says we are not absolutely better off today than we were just seven years ago, they’re not leveling with you, they’re not telling the truth.” ‘ — is this really the case?

I’ll be dissecting these (specious) claims over the next few posts, but lets start [...]

So who is lying then?

Last week Mr Obama went on what some might call a victory lap, crowing about his Administration’s economic accomplishments, all but calling those who criticise the current state of the American economy “liars”. Hmmm. Why not stop with the name calling, please?

Sure, GDP is positive, but eager to distribute the Happy News Mr [...]

Jobs up but what about wage growth?

The United States reported a fairly decent jobs number today, with a surge of 292K positions added. BLS release is here should you wish to read it direct from The Source.

This is, of course, before the usual revisions. Which generally fail to capture as much public attention as the flash number that was [...]

An already jittery market …

Overnight Chinese markets dropped some 7%, after news that Chinese manufacturing contracted for a 10th straight month.

Some analysts now suggest China – who reportedly contributes between 0.5% to 1% of global GDP – will now drive a global recession in starting in Q2 2016.

Ok, that has looked to me to be [...]

Where are the manufacturing jobs?

Lots of happy news in the US media recently about manufacturing in The United States, some suggesting we are the cusp of resurgence, arguing building goods in China no longer makes sense , others suggesting that as the trade deficit is lowered somehow US Manufacturers are “gaining ground”.

However few addressed the real reason [...]

Looking for work

Lots of happy news in the (where else?) US media about unemployment. “Things are getting better” is the underlying mantra, but if you’re unemployed and looking for work is this true?

The chart above shows the average time folks are out of a job, across two recessions. Specifically, the black line show the [...]

Temporary employment is booming

Lots of happy news in the US media recently about unemployment, specifically the continuing improvement in jobless claims.

Its probably best to look at the composition of the new jobs rather than then absolute number itself; the chart above shows. Specifically, two series – temporary help services (TEMPHELPS) is divided by total nonfarm [...]

Part time employment is booming

There has been lots of media speculation regarding the impact of the Affordable Care Act (aka, “Obamacare”) and employment in The United States. Specifically, the law requires businesses employing more than 50 people to offer full time employees healthcare. Many worry that businesses will cut staff or cut staff hours or, perhaps both.

[...]

As you might have guessed, my name is Dave Coker. I'm an ex-expatriate New Yorker who has lived in London since 1997.

I've worked in Investment Banking since the early 1980's, starting my career in New York with Dow Jones . I next moved to Deutsche Bank, where I spent the bulk of my career as Vice President of Global Risk Management. While at Moody's I was responsible for Professional Services in Europe, The Middle East and Africa, and was responsible globally for resources. While at ABN AMRO I was Global Programme Manager Risk Management Technology. Needless to say, I've seen Investment Banking and financial services from a wide variety of perspectives.

I take a long view towards finance and economics. I believe past events - the study of economic history - can help us understand current market events.

Internationally educated, I'm completing a PhD in Finance (Zurich), currently hold an MSc in Quantitative Finance (London), an MBA (London), studied Mathematics & Computer Science at the Undergraduate level (New York), and, most importantly, I've been a lifelong Student of the Markets.

I currently write and sell market commentary to several banks and hedge funds, consult on Credit Risk to a Global Tier 1 Investment Bank, and teach finance at The University of Westminster in London.

I'm a polished and effective public speaker, sometimes presenting on finance as many as six or eight times a week. I've also made several media appearances over the past two years, once again on the subject of finance.
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Observations of a financial nature.