Still an opp in gold stocks?

On May 4th I posted about the divergence between the spot price of gold and the producers of gold, i.e., gold miners. I look at correlations a great deal (subject of my PhD thesis actually) and noticing a breakdown in the long run relationship I suggested there was an opportunity in gold stocks by [...]

Ready for a correction?

I’ve previously written about the relationship between copper and equities, and the underlying premise is simple: as industrial activity surges so do copper prices. In other words, its a great bellwether for the global economy, one that I like to watch carefully to figure out what’s going on. Since copper is actively traded and [...]

Where is the inflation?

I’ve written before about what I view as the big elephant in the room today, inflation, but where is our unwelcome guest? Is it likely he’s slowly approaching and going to make a grand entrance in our lives? I kinda think so, and here is why. The chart above shows weekly prices for three [...]

Three reasons commodities might collapse

In March I wrote about commodities, suggesting they might be a nice trade if for no other reason than many hedge funds were now bullish on that sector. Over the past month commodities have sharply increased, particularly so many agricultural prices as illustrated in the chart above. Soybeans ($SOYB, blue), wheat ($WHEAT, red) and [...]

A little bit of inflation to spice things up

Although the Consumer Price Index (CPI) appears relatively benign last reported at 1.7%, it is instructive to look behind the number. The chart above shows the daily prices of three agricultural commodities, wheat ($WHEAT, black), corn ($CORN, red) and soybeans ($SOYB, green) from June 4th to July 19th. Soybeans are up 22.92%, corn is [...]

2008 commodity price shock redux

I’ve written before about the possible upside to commodities in 2012 but since somewhere its time to eat let’s focus on agricultural commodities. The chart above show the surge in prices over the past month for Soybeans, Corn & Wheat, up 10.44%, 24.39% and 37.6% respectively since June 13th. Why? Simple question, no single [...]

Soaring food prices

The chart above shows the performance of the S&P GSCI Agricultural Index ($GKX) since the July 2007 onset of the Credit Crunch. Up some 67%, the right hand side of the chart illustrates a recent sharp increase in commodity prices. Driven largely by intense weather the American midwest has recently experienced, all agricultural commodities [...]

A gain of almost 300%, sweet

On May 4th I wrote about the opportunities gold mining stocks presents. I suggested folks take advantage of the opportunity presented by a divergence between HUI (sometimes called the “gold bugs index”) and spot gold prices. So lets look at the record; the chart above shows the daily price of spot gold ($GOLD, black [...]

Its called deflation and its here

Market convention is to quote most commodities in the world’s reserve currency, the US Dollar. Therefore, in dollar terms, as the US currency weakens commodities – holding all over variables such as supply & demand constant – increase in price. This makes sense, as it takes more of the weaker US Dollars to purchase [...]

Dr Copper says “No!”

Copper is an interesting commodity, primarily because of it’s importance in economic activity. Consumers of the commodity will purchase it in advance of its use simply to insure they’ve got adequate supply; that makes it an interesting indicator of the stock market.

The chart above shows the weekly performance of both copper ($COPPER, [...]