A bubble in US equities?

I’ve previously written about collapsing volume on the NYSE even as stocks hit news highs and we’re seeing more of the same; the chart above shows S&P500 prices ($SPX, red line) compared to monthly trading volume ($NYTV, tray volume chart). Clearly there has a multi year collapse in trading volume however shares are hitting [...]

The Real Estate Industrial Complex

Real estate is an important driver of the American economy, accounting for perhaps as much as 17% of GDP and one in nine jobs, by some accounts. Of course that was a pre-recession metric so how large a contributor is real estate now?

A little difficult to measure directly, but lets look at [...]

Talking about bubbles

With The Fed buying $85B a month of [...]

Whats up with oil?

The chart above shows the huge collapse in the spot price of oil we’ve just witnessed: from $109.67 on February 24th to $84.08 on June 4th, or a drop of 23% in just 101 days. That’s equivalent to drop of 109% annualised, or decline we haven’t quite seen in twenty years – what’s the [...]

Ready for the surge in interest rates?

The yield on the US Ten Year Treasury, 1962 to 2012

The chart above shows the yield on the Ten Year, US benchmark treasury security. This issue is tremendously important as it used as a reference for all consumer loans – mortgages, credit cards, whatever type of debt an American wishes to take on. [...]

A bubble in natural gas

Spot natural gas prices, 2002 to 2012, weekly

I’ve previously written about natural gas, in particular it’s volatility compared to oil. The chart above shows the price of natural gas over the past ten years. Clearly we’re reaching record lows in prices even as supply continues to increase. The chart below details the weekly [...]

So what do skyscrapers have to do with equities?

Lots as it turns out. There has long been anecdotal evidence of a relationship between the construction of skyscrapers and equity market crashes. The argument centres around the easy availability of capital during boom times; many unrealistic projects are able to acquire funding, due to the overall recklessness of investors, looking for even larger [...]

When is this bubble going to burst?

We’ve previously discussed the bubble in US Treasuries, but it just seems to keep growing. When is it going to end is anyone’s guess, but we do know that The Fed has a seriously large position in US Treasuries, some say larger than China’s.

For comparison purposes, foreign holders of US Treasury debt [...]

What goes up must go down.

The chart above show the yield on what is known as a constant maturity treasury; effectively we’re graphing the yield on the 10Y Treasury over time.

You’ll note the aberration – from the early 80s, or for roughly thirty years, yields have been moving in one direction – DOWN. This can’t continue forever [...]

The unnatural strength of the US Dollar …

The Euro trades the lowest its been in 18 months, the Yen drops on rumours of further BOJ interventions even as the technical analysis guys say the US Dollar could strengthen another 20% against the Yen when will it all end?

Perhaps not soon. Best to go along with strong dollar in the [...]