Watch wages, not jobs

So it looks like jobs are going to be a key point in the 2012 elections, but is that really the point? The chart above shows the change in earnings, annual, from the onset of the credit crunch. In June 2007, immediately before the credit crunch began American’s saw their wages grow at an [...]

The chickens are coming home to roost

I’ve previously written about the dangerous state of the US equity markets; even as consumer confidence collapses to nine month lows, trading volume is evaporating as traders are reluctant to put money into the markets ahead of Jackson Hole which, by the way, may prove to be a washout for those wishing for stimulus. [...]

Sell in May isn’t working

I’ve previously written about the old Wall Street adage “sell in May and go away but don’t buy back before St. Legers Day”, the second Saturday of September when a horse race is run in England. For the last two summers this advice proved sound, as the S&P 500 declined -5.56% (2010) and -14.77% [...]

Are jobs really being created?

Curious that in this election year there seem to be an increasing number of reports about people being denied benefits, to what end one can only wonder. Regardless, on the back of last week’s news about an increase in unemployment in 8.3%, I thought I’d present an interesting insight about the current recession compared [...]

This is the setup

With the global slowdown – if not outright recession in some countries – in full force, fundamentals of the US stock market are looking increasingly wobbly, even as stocks push higher. I’m getting increasingly wary of this market and while I rarely short this is looking like a great opp, here is the setup: [...]

Robots and The Rich

The chart above shows The S&P 500 ($SPX, red line) compared to trading volume in New York (grey area curve), monthly for the past five years. Since the 2007 Credit Crunch we’ve seen volume on the US equity markets collapse which is consistent with prior recessions. However the American recession ended in September, 2009 [...]

America vs. The World

Something interesting: while looking at equity market performance, curiously, America has sharply outperformed. The chart above shows the year to date performance of the S&P 500 ($SPX, black line) compared to the MSCI World Index ex-USA ($MSWORLD, red line). Year to date, the S&P 500 is up 12.40% while The World Index is up 6.53%. [...]

The calm before the storm

The VIX (more properly known as the The CBOE Volatility Index [ .pdf ]) is a rough proxy for the amount of fear in the markets. Values north of 30 generally indicate there is a high level of fear and stress in the markets and lower values indicate less fear and less stress. I [...]

Dog’s dinner in the BRIC nations

To me the old Wall Street expression “stocks climb a wall of worry” describes the US equity market’s current rise, with the S&P 500 up 12.76% YTD as of yesterday’s close. Still, because of the wobbly / deteriorating fundamentals of the American economy, as well as relatively sharp rise in share prices, along with [...]

Releasing oil from the SPR?

With the average price of gas $3.70 a gallon, up almost 9% from a month ago and an election approaching, what a surprise we’re hearing rumours about an “emergency” release of oil from America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Curious about the effects of previous releases on the price of oil, I thought I’d look [...]

As you might have guessed, my name is Dave Coker. I'm an ex-expatriate New Yorker who has lived in London since 1997.

I've worked in Investment Banking since the early 1980's, starting my career in New York with Dow Jones . I next moved to Deutsche Bank, where I spent the bulk of my career as Vice President of Global Risk Management. While at Moody's I was responsible for Professional Services in Europe, The Middle East and Africa, and was responsible globally for resources. While at ABN AMRO I was Global Programme Manager Risk Management Technology. Needless to say, I've seen Investment Banking and financial services from a wide variety of perspectives.

I take a long view towards finance and economics. I believe past events - the study of economic history - can help us understand current market events.

Internationally educated, I'm completing a PhD in Finance (Zurich), currently hold an MSc in Quantitative Finance (London), an MBA (London), studied Mathematics & Computer Science at the Undergraduate level (New York), and, most importantly, I've been a lifelong Student of the Markets.

I currently write and sell market commentary to several banks and hedge funds, consult on Credit Risk to a Global Tier 1 Investment Bank, and teach finance as a Visiting Lecturer at Universities in England, France and Austria.

I'm a polished and effective public speaker, sometimes presenting on finance as many as six or eight times a week. I've also made several media appearances over the past two years, once again on the subject of finance.

I enjoy discussing pretty much anything in the Capital Markets space. If you'd like to chat click here to drop me a line!

Observations of a financial nature.